U.S. Outdoor Small Cells Forecast, 2022-2027: When will 5G densification start?

New outdoor small cells will absolutely be deployed. While COVID played havoc on the outdoor small cell deployments in 2020 and 2021, 2022 saw a slight recovery. Looking forward, the question now is when 5G densification will start? After all, once the bulk of the macrocell 5G network has been built, attention will quickly turn to 5G small cells. The question is when.

5G will follow the same path as 4G LTE – build coverage on the macrocells, add capacity where needed and then start densification with small cells to fill in coverage and capacity holes. The difference with 5G is that the 4G LTE small cells will eventually be upgraded, as well as adding new 5G small cell sites, but when 4G LTE small cells were deployed, very few 3G small cells were in the networks.

In this market study, iGR presents a total addressable market forecast split by spectrum band (Sub 6 GHz and mmWave), as well as an “actuals” forecast for U.S. outdoor small cell nodes installed. The actuals forecast is presented by spectrum band (Sub 6 GHz, CBRS and mmWave), as well as generation (4G and 5G).

This forecast only includes outdoor small cells used for mobile voice/data by the public networks; it excludes any deployments of fixed wireless access (FWA).

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Key Questions Answered

• Why do the mobile networks need outdoor small cells to meet bandwidth demand?
• How do outdoor small cells fit into operators’ evolving networks?
• What are the issues with deploying outdoor small cells in the U.S.? How do these issues impact the number of small cells in the market?
• When will 5G networks need densification and hence, outdoor small cells?
• What is the regulatory environment for deploying small cells?
• Where are outdoor small cells most likely to be located? What’s their role?
• How important is location to the effectiveness of an outdoor small cell? How does spectrum band relate to location?
• What is the total addressable market in the U.S. for outdoor small cells?
• What are the market forecasts for installed sub-6 GHz, CBRS and mmWave small cells?

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Who Should Read

• Mobile operators
• Device OEMs
• Mobile infrastructure and equipment OEMs
• Content providers and distributors
• Financial analysts and investors.

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Table of Contents

• Abstract
• Executive Summary
• What This Means
• Forecast Methodology and Assumptions
• Definition of Outdoor Small Cells
• Drivers and Inhibitors of Outdoor Small Cells
• Market Drivers
• Market Inhibitors
• Overview of Small Cell-related Regulations and Legislation
• Outdoor Small Cell Deployment Requirements and Issues
• Small Cell Deployment Requirements
• The Many Considerations of Deployment
• Key market trends
• Economic
• Semiconductor supply chain
• Permitting time
• Bandwidth demand changes
• C-Band and 3.45 GHz Deployment Progress
• Verizon
• AT&T
• T-Mobile
• Methodology for Outdoor Small Cell Spending Forecasts
• Spending TAM for Outdoor Small Cells
• Actual Deployed Outdoor Small Cells
• Spending for Outdoor Small Cells
• Network Build Spending
• Operational Spending
• Outdoor Small Cells – Build & Operate Opportunity (TAM)
• Sub 6 GHz (including CBRS)
• mmWave
• Outdoor Small Cells - Actuals Spending by Spectrum Band
• Sub 6 GHz (excluding CBRS)
• CBRS
• mmWave
• Network build by spectrum band
• Operational expenses by spectrum band
• Total spending by spectrum band
• Outdoor Small Cells - Actuals Spending by Generation
• Build
• Operate
• 4G
• 5G
• Total spending by generation
• Definitions
• About iGR
• Disclaimer

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List of Tables

• Table 1: TAM Sub 6 GHz Outdoor Small Cells - Network Build & Operate Opportunity ($ millions), 2022-2027
• Table 2: TAM mmWave Outdoor Small Cells - Network Build & Operate Opportunity ($ millions), 2022-2027
• Table 3: Sub 6 GHz Outdoor Small Cells Actuals (excluding CBRS) - Network Build & Operate Spending ($ millions), 2022-2027
• Table 4: CBRS Outdoor Small Cells Actuals - Network Build & Operate Spending ($ millions), 2022-2027
• Table 5: mmWave Outdoor Small Cells Actuals - Network Build & Operate Spending ($ millions), 2022-2027
• Table 6: Total Network Build spending, actual outdoor small cells (Sub 6 GHz, CBRS and mmWave), 2022-2027
• Table 7: Total Operational spending, actual outdoor small cells (Sub 6 GHz, CBRS and mmWave), 2022-2027
• Table 8: Total spending, actual outdoor small cells (Sub 6 GHz, CBRS and mmWave), 2022-2027
• Table 9: Outdoor Small Cells Actuals Network Build Spending ($ millions) by Generation, 2022-2027
• Table 10: Outdoor Small Cells Actuals Operational Spending ($ millions) by Generation, 2022-2027
• Table 11: 4G Outdoor Small Cells Actuals - Network Build & Operate Spending ($ millions), 2022-2027
• Table 12: 5G Outdoor Small Cells Actuals - Network Build & Operate Spending ($ millions), 2022-2027
• Table 13: Total spending, actual outdoor small cells (4G and 5G), 2022-2027
• Definitions Table

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List of Charts and Figures

• Figure A: Total spending, actual outdoor small cells (Sub 6 GHz, CBRS and mmWave), 2022-2027
• Figure B: Total spending, actual outdoor small cells (4G and 5G), 2022-2027
• Figure 1: TAM Sub 6 GHz and CBRS Outdoor Small Cells - Network Build & Operate Opportunity ($ millions), 2022-2027
• Figure 2: TAM mmWave Outdoor Small Cells - Network Build & Operate Opportunity ($ millions), 2022-2027
• Figure 3: Sub 6 GHz Outdoor Small Cells Actuals (excluding CBRS) - Network Build Spending ($ millions), 2022-2027
• Figure 4: CBRS Outdoor Small Cells Actuals - Network Build Spending ($ millions), 2022-2027
• Figure 5: mmWave Outdoor Small Cells Actuals - Network Build & Operate Spending ($ millions), 2022-2027
• Figure 6: Total Network Build spending, actual outdoor small cells (Sub 6 GHz, CBRS and mmWave), 2022-2027
• Figure 7: Total Operational spending, actual outdoor small cells (Sub 6 GHz, CBRS and mmWave), 2022-2027
• Figure 8: Total spending, actual outdoor small cells (Sub 6 GHz, CBRS and mmWave), 2022-2027
• Figure 9: Outdoor Small Cells Actuals Network Build Spending ($ millions) by Generation, 2022-2027
• Figure 10: Outdoor Small Cells Actuals Operational Spending ($ millions) by Generation, 2022-2027
• Figure 11: 4G Outdoor Small Cells Actuals - Network Build & Operate Spending ($ millions), 2022-2027
• Figure 12: 5G Outdoor Small Cells Actuals - Network Build & Operate Spending ($ millions), 2022-2027
• Figure 13: Total spending, actual outdoor small cells (4G and 5G), 2022-2027

For additional information or to purchase the U.S. Outdoor Small Cells Forecast, 2022 – 2027 market study, please contact Iain Gillott, at (512) 796-1675 or by email.