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Wireless & Mobile Landscape

Europe Mobile Network Infrastructure Spending Forecast, 2018-2028: The start of a long road from LTE to 5G

Europe is starting work on the migration to 5G, with many trials underway and the first commercial networks expected soon. However, 5G network deployment will not be complete in a year or two, but will instead take many years to fully deploy, as Europe is a large region with many countries and mobile operators. As a result, LTE will continue to carry the majority of European mobile data traffic for the next few years.

This market study presents a forecast for the cost of building, deploying and operating LTE and 5G networks in Europe beginning in 2018 and continuing through 2028. Included is a mobile network infrastructure build forecast, which is further detailed by mobile network component (RAN, front/backhaul, and core) and generation (LTE and 5G). The study also includes a forecast of network operating costs. In addition to the forecasts, the market study provides detailed information on evolving mobile network architectures, 5G networks, and how the European mobile industry is deploying 5G.


Key Questions Answered

  • How will the amount of data traffic carried on LTE and 5G networks grow in Europe in the next ten years?
  • How big is the LTE and 5G infrastructure opportunity in Europe in the next ten years?
  • How fast will 5G network spending grow in the next ten years in Europe?
  • What is the share of infrastructure spending for the network components of RAN, fronthaul/backhaul, and core in the next ten years?
  • What is the share of infrastructure spending for LTE and 5G in the next ten years?
  • What are the expected mobile network operating costs in the next ten years?
  • What are the various 3GPP standards leading up to 5G and what are they likely to contain?
  • What is 5G? How is it defined and/or viewed right now? What are the key capabilities for 5G networks?
  • What are some of the goals and use cases for 5G?
  • How will European mobile operators migrate from their 4G LTE networks of today to tomorrow’s 5G networks?
  • What have European mobile operators done to trial and prepare for 5G? When did they launch/will they launch their initial 5G networks?
  • What is Non-standalone New Radio (NSA-NR)? How do MIMO and beam steering impact 5G networks?

Who Should Read

  • Mobile operators
  • Infrastructure OEMs
  • Small cell product and solution vendors
  • Edge computing solution providers
  • Backhaul service providers and equipment OEMs
  • Financial analysts and investors.

Table of Contents

  • Abstract
  • Executive Summary
    • What This Means
  • Methodology
    • Network Model
    • Current Model Assumptions
    • 5G Model Assumptions
    • Variance from mobile operator financial disclosures
  • What is 5G?
    • 5G Use Cases
    • URLLC
    • Massive IoT
    • 5G Services and Use Cases
  • Current status of 3GPP 5G standards
  • 5G Network Needs
    • Spectrum Needs
    • Challenges Along the Road to 5G
    • What will the first 5G networks look like?
    • MIMO & Beamforming
    • MU-MIMO
    • Massive MIMO and mmWave
    • Beamforming
  • What European Mobile Operators Are Doing to Prepare for 5G
    • European Union
    • Spectrum
    • BT (EE)
    • Deutsche Telekom
    • Orange
    • Telefonica (Spain, Germany, UK)
    • Three UK
    • TIM
    • Turkcell Group
    • Vodafone (Corporate)
    • Vodafone Germany
    • Vodafone Spain
    • Vodafone UK
  • Europe Mobile Connections and Data Traffic Forecast
    • Europe Mobile Connections Forecast
    • Europe Mobile Data Traffic Forecast
  • Europe Infrastructure Build Cost Forecast
    • Methodology and Assumptions
    • Europe Mobile Infrastructure Build Spending by Network Component
    • Europe Mobile Infrastructure Build Spending by Generation
  • Europe Mobile Network Operating Cost Forecast
  • Europe Total Mobile Network Cost Forecast
  • Definitions
  • About iGR
    • Disclaimer

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Forecasted Europe Mobile Connections, 2018-2028 (Millions)
  • Table 2: Assumed Total Europe Network Usage, 2018-2028 (EB/year)
  • Table 3a: Europe Mobile Network Infrastructure Build Spending, 2018-2023 ($M)
  • Table 3b: Europe Mobile Network Infrastructure Build Spending, 2024-2028 ($M)
  • Table 4a: Europe Mobile Network Infrastructure Build Spending, 2018-2023 (percent)
  • Table 4b: Europe Mobile Network Infrastructure Build Spending, 2024-2028 (percent)
  • Table 5a: Europe Mobile Data Traffic by Generation, 2018-2023 (percent)
  • Table 5b: Europe Mobile Data Traffic by Generation, 2024-2028 (percent)
  • Table 6a: Europe Mobile Network Infrastructure Build Spending by Generation, 2018-2023 ($M)
  • Table 6b: Europe Mobile Network Infrastructure Build Spending by Generation, 2024-2028 ($M)
  • Table 7a: Europe Mobile Network Operating Costs, 2018-2023 ($M)
  • Table 7b: Europe Mobile Network Operating Costs, 2024-2028 ($M)
  • Table 8a: Total Europe Mobile Network Build and Operating Spending, 2018-2023 ($M)
  • Table 8b: Total Europe Mobile Network Build and Operating Spending, 2024-2028 ($M)
  • Definitions Table

List of Charts and Figures

  • Figure A: Europe Mobile Network Infrastructure Build Spending, 2018-2028 ($M)
  • Figure B: Europe Mobile Network Operating Costs, 2018-2028 ($M)
  • Figure C: Total Europe Mobile Network Build and Operating Spending, 2018-2028 ($M, Total
  • Figure 1: 5G fundamental capabilities
  • Figure 2: 5G main applications and services
  • Figure 3: Timeline of 3GPP Releases
  • Figure 4: Beamforming and MIMO
  • Figure 5: 2x2 MIMO
  • Figure 6: Conceptual view of MU-MIMO
  • Figure 7: Another take on MU-MIMO
  • Figure 8: Analog and Digital Beamforming for mmWave
  • Figure 9: Prototype Massive MIMO Antenna, Lund University
  • Figure 10: Other Massive MIMO Antenna Designs
  • Figure 11: Massive MIMO Antenna Designs / Systems
  • Figure 12: Conceptual view of Analog and Digital Beamforming
  • Figure 13: Inter-relation of Beamforming and MIMO
  • Figure 14: Forecasted Europe Mobile Connections, 2018-2028 (Millions)
  • Figure 15: Assumed Total Europe Network Usage, 2018-2028 (EB/year)
  • Figure 16: Europe Total Mobile Network Infrastructure Build Spending, 2018-2028 ($M)
  • Figure 17: Europe Mobile Network Infrastructure Build Spending by Component, 2018-2028 ($M)
  • Figure 18: Europe Mobile Network Infrastructure Build Spending by Component, 2018-2028 (percent)
  • Figure 19: Europe Mobile Data Traffic by Generation, 2018-2028 (percent)
  • Figure 20: Europe Mobile Network Infrastructure Build Spending by Generation, 2018-2028 ($M)
  • Figure 21: Europe Mobile Network Infrastructure Build Spending by Generation, 2018-2028 (percent)
  • Figure 22: Europe Mobile Network Operating Costs, 2018-2028 ($M)
  • Figure 23: Total Europe Mobile Network Build and Operating Spending, 2018-2028 ($M, Total)
  • Figure 24: Total Europe Mobile Network Build and Operating Spending, 2018-2028 (percent)

For additional information on the Europe Mobile Network Infrastructure Spending Forecast, 2018-2028: The start of a long road from LTE to 5G market study, please contact Iain Gillott, at (512) 263-5682 or by email.