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Small Cells, DAS & Het-Nets

Het-Net Data Traffic Forecast, 2013-2018

People move around and they use devices and data, and they use them a bit more everyday. The better the device and the network, the easier it becomes to rely less on the local storage of content (music, video, etc.) and more on accessing what they want from the “cloud.”

During certain times of the day – commute, lunch, etc. – people may move about, turn on a mobile device for entertainment or work purposes and start using data. If 1,000 people do that at the same time in a small geographic area, the macro cellular data network will likely be unable to deliver the required bandwidth thus creating data demand “pain points” in any given city or town.

The model set forth in this report, then, addresses several key questions:

  • •How much cellular data will be consumed in the U.S. through 2018
  • •How much wired home broadband data will be consumed in the U.S. through 2018
  • •How much WiFi offload data traffic will be used in the U.S. through 2018
  • The model combines each of the above forecasts with a time of day variable that shows when data usage “spikes” or “pain points” are likely to occur and the magnitude of these spikes.

    Taken all together, this creates a heterogeneous network (het-net) forecast that shows, on average, how much data is being used on which network.


    Key Questions Answered

    • What consists of het-net data traffic?
    • What is het-net data usage like today?
    • How does het-net data usage change over the forecast period?
    • How does het-net data usage change by user profile?
    • What are the drivers of het-net data traffic growth?
    • How does the het-net data forecast change over the forecast period?

    Who Should Read

    • Mobile operators
    • Device OEMs
    • Mobile Infrastructure vendors
    • Tower companies and operators
    • Mobile backhaul vendors
    • Content providers and distributors
    • Financial analysts and investors.

    Table of Contents

    • Abstract
    • Executive Summary
    • Essence of Het-Nets
      • Macro cell coverage
      • Small cell coverage and capacity
      • Pain points
      • Modeling Het-Nets
    • Emerging Ways of Handling “Pain Points”
      • Identifying Pain Points
      • Different Types of Small Cells
      • Femtocells and Picocells
      • Defining a Metrocell
      • Where is it appropriate to deploy a small cell?
    • Het-Net Bandwidth Demand
      • Het-Net Data Demand
      • Distribution of data use by time of day
      • Growth in data consumed by hour
    • Methodologies
      • U.S. Connections Forecasts
      • iGR’s Usage Categories
      • Mobile Data Demand Forecast
      • U.S. Home Broadband and WiFi Usage Forecast
      • U.S. WiFi Offload Forecast
      • Why offload?
      • U.S. Het-Net Data Demand Forecast
    • Appendix
      • LIGHT USERS
      • MEDIUM USERS
      • HEAVY USERS
      • EXTREME USERS
    • Het-Net Vendor Profiles
      • Advanced RF Technologies, Inc. (ADRF)
      • Airspan Networks
      • Airvana LLC
      • Alcatel-Lucent
      • Argela
      • AT&T, Inc.
      • Axell Wireless / Cobham
      • Betacom Incorporated
      • Bright House Networks, LLC
      • BTI Wireless
      • C Squared Systems
      • Cablevision Systems Corporation
      • CellO (formerly Optiway)
      • CSI (Cellular Specialties, Inc.)
      • CenturyLink, Inc.
      • Charter Communications, Inc.
      • Cisco
      • Comba Telecom
      • Comcast Corporation
      • CommScope
      • Connectivity Wireless Solutions
      • Corning MobileAccess
      • Cox Communications
      • Crown Castle / NextG Networks
      • Ethertronics
      • Ericsson
      • ExteNet Systems
      • Galtronics
      • Gemtek
      • Huawei
      • iBwave
      • Inner Wireless/Black Box Network Services
      • ip.access
      • Juni
      • Mindspeed Technologies, Inc.
      • NEC
      • NSN (Nokia Solutions and Networks)
      • Oracle Acme Packet
      • Powerwave Technologies
      • Public Wireless
      • PureWave Networks
      • Quortus
      • RFS - Radio Frequency Systems
      • Ruckus Wireless
      • Samsung Electronics
      • Sercomm
      • SOLiD Technologies
      • Solutelia
      • SpiderCloud Wireless
      • Taqua LLC
      • TE Connectivity
      • Tempest Telecom Solutions
      • Time Warner Cable
      • Ubee-Airwalk
      • Ubiquisys – Now part of Cisco
      • Verizon Wireless
      • Zinwave
      • ZTE Corporation
    • Definitions
      • General
      • Device Types
      • Services
      • Network Technology
    • About iGR
      • Disclaimer

    List of Tables

    • Table 1: AT&T In-Stadium Network Usage
    • Table 2: Het-Net Bandwidth Demand, 2013-2018
    • Table 3: Distribution of Mobile Data Usage per User per Hour (GB/hour), 2013 only
    • Table 4: Distribution of Het-Net Data Usage per User per Hour (GB/hour), 2018 only
    • Table 5: Comparing 2013 with 2018 (GB/day)
    • Table 6: Light Users, 2013-2018
    • Table 7: Light User Het-Net Data Forecast, 2013-2018
    • Table 8: Light User Het-Net Time of Day, 2013
    • Table 9: Light User Het-Net Time of Day, 2014
    • Table 10: Light User Het-Net Time of Day, 2015
    • Table 11: Light User Het-Net Time of Day, 2016
    • Table 12: Light User Het-Net Time of Day, 2017
    • Table 13: Light User Het-Net Time of Day, 2018
    • Table 14: Medium User Forecast, 2013-2014
    • Table 15: Medium User Het-Net Data Forecast, 2013-2014 (GB/Month)
    • Table 16: Medium User Het-Net Time of Day, 2013
    • Table 17: Medium User Het-Net Time of Day, 2014
    • Table 18: Medium User Het-Net Time of Day, 2015
    • Table 19: Medium User Het-Net Time of Day, 2016
    • Table 20: Medium User Het-Net Time of Day, 2017
    • Table 21: Medium User Het-Net Time of Day, 2018
    • Table 22: Heavy Users Forecast, 2013-2018
    • Table 23: Heavy User Het-Net Forecast, 2013-2018 (GB/Month)
    • Table 24: Heavy User Het-Net Time of Day, 2013
    • Table 25: Heavy User Het-Net Time of Day, 2014
    • Table 26: Heavy User Het-Net Time of Day, 2015
    • Table 27: Heavy User Het-Net Time of Day, 2016
    • Table 28: Heavy User Het-Net Time of Day, 2017
    • Table 29: Heavy User Het-Net Time of Day, 2018
    • Table 30: Extreme Users Forecast, 2013-2018
    • Table 31: Extreme Users Het-Net Data Forecast, 2013-2018 (GB/Month)
    • Table 32: Extreme Users Het-Net Time of Day, 2013
    • Table 33: Extreme Users Het-Net Time of Day, 2014
    • Table 34: Extreme Users Het-Net Time of Day, 2015
    • Table 35: Extreme Users Het-Net Time of Day, 2016
    • Table 36: Extreme Users Het-Net Time of Day, 2017
    • Table 37: Extreme Users Het-Net Time of Day, 2018

    List of Charts and Figures

    • Figure A: Total U.S. Het-Net Data Demand, 2013-2018 (GB/Month)
    • Figure 1: Theoretical City with Cell Sites
    • Figure 2: Theoretical City with Smaller Macro Cells
    • Figure 3: Commute Routes in a Theoretical City
    • Figure 4: Theoretical Bandwidth Pain Points in City X
    • Figure 5: One View of the Het-Net
    • Figure 6: Het-Net Bandwidth Demand, 2013-2018 (GB/Month)
    • Figure 7: Het-Net Data Usage per Hour per User (GB/hour), 2013 only
    • Figure 8: Het-Net Data Usage on a Percentage Basis, 2013 only
    • Figure 9: Het-Net Data Usage per Hour per User (GB/hour), 2018 only
    • Figure 10: Het-Net Data Usage on a Percentage Basis, 2018 only
    • Figure 11: Comparing 2013 with 2018 (GB/day)
    • Figure 12: Light User Het-Net Data Forecast, 2013-2018 (GB/Month)
    • Figure 13: Light User Het-Net Time of Day, 2013 (GB)
    • Figure 14: Light User Het-Net Time of Day (% Mix), 2013
    • Figure 15: Light User Het-Net Time of Day, 2014 (GB)
    • Figure 16: Light User Het-Net Time of Day (% Mix), 2014
    • Figure 17: Light User Het-Net Time of Day, 2015 (GB)
    • Figure 18: Light User Het-Net Time of Day (% Mix), 2015
    • Figure 19: Light User Het-Net Time of Day, 2016 (GB)
    • Figure 20: Light User Het-Net Time of Day (% Mix), 2016
    • Figure 21: Light User Het-Net Time of Day, 2017 (GB)
    • Figure 22: Light User Het-Net Time of Day (% Mix), 2017
    • Figure 23: Light User Het-Net Time of Day, 2018 (GB)
    • Figure 24: Light User Het-Net Time of Day (% Mix), 2018
    • Figure 25: Medium User Het-Net Data Forecast, 2013-2014 (GB/Month)
    • Figure 26: Medium User Het-Net Time of Day, 2013 (GB)
    • Figure 27: Medium User Het-Net Time of Day (% Mix), 2013
    • Figure 28: Medium User Het-Net Time of Day, 2014 (GB)
    • Figure 29: Medium User Het-Net Time of Day (% Mix), 2014
    • Figure 30: Medium User Het-Net Time of Day, 2015 (GB)
    • Figure 31: Medium User Het-Net Time of Day (% Mix), 2015
    • Figure 32: Medium User Het-Net Time of Day, 2016 (GB)
    • Figure 33: Medium User Het-Net Time of Day (% Mix), 2016
    • Figure 34: Medium User Het-Net Time of Day, 2017 (GB)
    • Figure 35: Medium User Het-Net Time of Day (% Mix), 2017
    • Figure 36: Medium User Het-Net Time of Day, 2018 (GB)
    • Figure 37: Medium User Het-Net Time of Day (% Mix), 2018
    • Figure 38: Heavy User Het-Net Forecast, 2013-2018 (GB/Month)
    • Figure 39: Heavy User Het-Net Time of Day, 2013 (GB)
    • Figure 40: Heavy User Het-Net Time of Day (% Mix), 2013
    • Figure 41: Heavy User Het-Net Time of Day, 2014 (GB)
    • Figure 42: Heavy User Het-Net Time of Day (% Mix), 2014
    • Figure 43: Heavy User Het-Net Time of Day, 2015 (GB)
    • Figure 44: Heavy User Het-Net Time of Day (% Mix), 2015
    • Figure 45: Heavy User Het-Net Time of Day, 2016 (GB)
    • Figure 46: Heavy User Het-Net Time of Day (% Mix), 2016
    • Figure 47: Heavy User Het-Net Time of Day, 2017 (GB)
    • Figure 48: Heavy User Het-Net Time of Day (% Mix), 2017
    • Figure 49: Heavy User Het-Net Time of Day, 2018 (GB)
    • Figure 50: Heavy User Het-Net Time of Day (% Mix), 2018
    • Figure 51: Extreme Users Het-Net Data Forecast, 2013-2018 (GB/Month)
    • Figure 52: Extreme Users Het-Net Time of Day, 2013 (GB)
    • Figure 53: Extreme Users Het-Net Time of Day (% Mix), 2013
    • Figure 54: Extreme Users Het-Net Time of Day, 2014 (GB)
    • Figure 55: Extreme Users Het-Net Time of Day (% Mix), 2014
    • Figure 56: Extreme Users Het-Net Time of Day, 2015 (GB)
    • Figure 57: Extreme Users Het-Net Time of Day (% Mix), 2015
    • Figure 58: Extreme Users Het-Net Time of Day, 2016 (GB)
    • Figure 59: Extreme Users Het-Net Time of Day (% Mix), 2016
    • Figure 60: Extreme Users Het-Net Time of Day, 2017 (GB)
    • Figure 61: Extreme Users Het-Net Time of Day (% Mix), 2017
    • Figure 62: Extreme Users Het-Net Time of Day, 2018 (GB)
    • Figure 63: Extreme Users Het-Net Time of Day (% Mix), 2018
    • Figure 64: Airvana Femtocell Solution
    • Figure 65: OTDMLL Technology
    • Figure 66: RefAccess Technology
    • Figure 67: Cisco Small Cell Solution
    • Figure 68: Cisco SP WiFi Solution
    • Figure 69: MobileAccess Total DAS Solution
    • Figure 70: Crown Castle DAS Solution
    • Figure 71: Crown Castle DAS Solution
    • Figure 72: Gemtek LTE Gateway
    • Figure 73: Juni Gateway
    • Figure 74: Oracle Acme Packet Net-Net Security Gateway
    • Figure 75: Ruckus WiFi Offload Solution
    • Figure 76: Zinwave System 3000 DAS

    For additional information on the Het-Net Data Forecast, 2013-2018 market research report, please contact Iain Gillott, at (512) 263-5682 or by email.