5G

U.S. 5G Revenues, 2017-2027: The billions and where they come from

5G is rapidly approaching with some U.S. mobile operators planning to launch networks using the 5G New Radio standard as early as late this year. A significant amount of investment will be necessary in order for 5G to deliver the expected performance levels and functionality. As such, mobile operators need to identify sources of revenue to pay for this investment. Simply relying on subscription revenue from end users will not be sufficient.

In this market study, iGR presents a model for potential 5G revenues in the U.S. from now until 2027. Included in the model are five major sources of revenue that mobile operators can depend upon in the 5G era.

This market study provides a 10-year forecast for potential 5G revenue. The potential revenues provided by mobile broadband, IoT, fixed wireless access, advertising, and entertainment services are presented separately. This market study also provides information on the requirements of 5G, the timeline of its deployment, the potential use cases of 5G, as well as recent 5G initiatives of the major U.S. mobile operators.


Key Questions Answered

  • What is 5G? How is it defined right now?
  • What are the requirements of 5G and when will it be deployed?
  • What are the expected use cases for 5G?
  • How many 5G connections can be expected in the U.S. from 2018 to 2027?
  • What are potential sources of revenue for 5G networks?
  • What will the 5G mobile broadband subscription service model look like and how much revenue will be generated?
  • What is the business model for 5G IoT and how much revenue will be generated?
  • What is 5G fixed wireless access and how much revenue can be generated by the service?
  • How will 5G advertising generate revenue and how much can be expected?
  • What is the model for 5G-based entertainment services? How much revenue will it provide?
  • How does each source of 5G revenue compare? Which is the most significant?
  • What are the total revenues expected from 5G from 2018-2027?

Who Should Read

  • Mobile operators
  • Mobile device OEMs
  • Mobile service and application developers
  • IoT vendors and solutions providers
  • Infrastructure OEMs
  • Financial analysts and investors.

Table of Contents

  • Abstract
  • Executive Summary
    • 5G Defined
    • 5G Revenue Sources
    • U.S. 5G Revenue Model
  • Methodology
    • Terminology
    • Connections and Subscribers
  • What is 5G?
    • 5G Defined
    • 5G Timeline
    • Requirements of 5G
      • High Bandwidth
      • Low Latency
      • Massive IoT
      • Five 9s
  • 5G Services and Use Cases
  • U.S. Mobile Operator 5G Initiatives
    • AT&T
      • LTE Network Upgrades and LAA
      • “5G Evolution”
      • Fixed Wireless
      • mmWave Trials
      • Non-Standalone NR, Small Cells and mmWave
      • IoT
      • Edge Computing
      • FirstNet
      • Autonomous Vehicles
    • Verizon Wireless
      • 5G Use Cases
      • Fixed Wireless
      • mmWave and other spectrum
      • Verizon Telematics
      • LTE Network Upgrades
    • T-Mobile US
      • Spectrum for 5G
      • IoT
      • LTE Network Upgrades and LAA
      • 5G Trials
    • Sprint
      • Mobile 5G
      • LTE Network Upgrades
  • Summary of Use Cases
  • 5G Revenue Sources
    • 5G Mobile Broadband Service
    • 5G IoT
    • 5G Fixed Wireless Access
    • Advertising
    • Entertainment
    • Network slicing
  • 5G Revenue Model Assumptions
    • Overriding Assumption
    • Additional Overall Assumptions
    • Mobile Service Revenue Assumptions
    • IoT Revenue Assumptions
    • Fixed Wireless Revenue Assumptions
    • Advertising Revenue Assumptions
    • Entertainment Revenue Assumptions
  • U.S. 5G Revenue Model
    • 5G Connections and Subscribers
    • Revenue from 5G Mobile Broadband Services
    • Revenue from 5G IoT
    • Revenue from 5G Fixed Wireless Access
    • Revenue from Advertising
    • Revenue from Mobile Operator Entertainment Services
    • Total 5G Revenue
  • Definitions
  • About iGR
    • Disclaimer

List of Tables

  • Table 1: 5G Use Cases per Mobile Operators
  • Table 2: What U.S. Consumers are Willing to Pay for 5G
  • Table 3: Example Household and Communication Costs, Phase I
  • Table 4: Example Household and Communication Costs, Phase II
  • Table 5: Example Household and Communication Costs, Phase III
  • Table 6: U.S. 5G Connections and Subscribers, 2017-2022
  • Table 7: U.S. 5G Connections and Subscribers, 2022-2027
  • Table 8: ARPU and Revenue($M) from 5G Mobile Services, 2017-2022
  • Table 9: ARPU and Revenue($M) from 5G Mobile Services, 2023-2027
  • Table 10: 5G IoT Connections, 2017-2022
  • Table 11: 5G IoT Connections, 2023-2027
  • Table 12: ARPU and Revenue($M) from 5G IoT, 2017-2022
  • Table 13: ARPU and Revenue($M) from 5G IoT, 2023-2027
  • Table 14: 5G Fixed Wireless Access Connections, 2017-2022
  • Table 15: 5G Fixed Wireless Access Connections, 2023-2027
  • Table 16: ARPU and Revenue($M) from Fixed Wireless Access, 2017-2022
  • Table 17: ARPU and Revenue($M) from Fixed Wireless Access, 2023-2027
  • Table 18: Monthly Unique Visitor Amount and Annual Revenue ($M) from 5G Web Advertising, 2017-2022
  • Table 19: Monthly Unique Visitor Amount and Annual Revenue ($M) from 5G Web Advertising, 2023-2027
  • Table 20: CPM Amount and Annual Revenue from 5G Video Advertising, 2017-2022
  • Table 21: CPM Amount and Annual Revenue from 5G Video Advertising, 2023-2027
  • Table 22: Total Annual Revenue from 5G Advertising, 2017-2022
  • Table 23: Total Annual Revenue from 5G Advertising, 2023-2027
  • Table 24: ARPU, Penetration and Annual Revenue from 5G Entertainment Services, 2017-2022
  • Table 25: ARPU, Penetration and Annual Revenue from 5G Entertainment Services, 2023-2027
  • Table 26: Total Annual 5G Revenue ($M) by Service, 2017-2022
  • Table 27: Total Annual 5G Revenue ($M) by Service, 2023-2027
  • Table 28: Total Annual 5G Revenue by Service (Percent), 2017-2022
  • Table 29: Total Annual 5G Revenue by Service (Percent), 2023-2027
  • Table 30: Blended ARPU for all 5G Services, 2017-2022
  • Table 31: Blended ARPU for all 5G Services, 2023-2027
  • Definitions Table

List of Charts and Figures

  • Figure A: Total Annual 5G Revenue ($M), 2017-2027
  • Figure B: Total Annual 5G Revenue ($M) by Service, 2017-2027
  • Figure C: Total Annual 5G Revenue by Service (Percent), 2017-2027
  • Figure 1: Timeline for IMT-2020 (5G)
  • Figure 2: Three Major Functionalities of 5G
  • Figure 3: What U.S. Consumers are Willing to Pay for 5G
  • Figure 4: Example Household Entertainment and Communication Costs – Phase I
  • Figure 5: Example Household Entertainment and Communication Costs – Phase II
  • Figure 6: Example Household Entertainment and Communication Costs – Phase III
  • Figure 7: U.S. 5G Connections and Subscribers, 2017-2027
  • Figure 8: Revenue ($M) from 5G Mobile Services, 2017-2027
  • Figure 9: 5G IoT Connections, 2017-2027
  • Figure 10: Revenue($M) from 5G IoT, 2017-2027
  • Figure 11: 5G Fixed Wireless Access Connections, 2017-2027
  • Figure 12: Annual Revenue ($M) from 5G Fixed Wireless Access Services, 2017-2027
  • Figure 13: Annual Revenue ($M) from 5G Web Advertising, 2017-2027
  • Figure 14: Annual Revenue ($M) from 5G Video Advertising, 2017-2027
  • Figure 15: Total Annual Revenue from 5G Advertising, 2017-2027
  • Figure 16: Annual Revenue from 5G Entertainment Services, 2017-2027
  • Figure 17: Total Annual 5G Revenue ($M) by Service, 2017-2027
  • Figure 18: Total Annual 5G Revenue ($M), 2017-2027
  • Figure 19: Total Annual 5G Revenue by Service (Percent), 2017-2027
  • Figure 20: Blended ARPU for all 5G Services, 2017-2027

For additional information on the U.S. 5G Revenues, 2017-2027: The billions and where they come from market study, please contact Iain Gillott, at (512) 263-5682 or by email.