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Wireless & Mobile Landscape

U.S. Smartphone Forecast: 2011-2016

Within 2011 alone, U.S. users were buying considerably more smartphones than they were in 2010. By the end of the year, approximately 76 percent of handsets sold were smartphones. This report, iGR’s U.S. Smartphone Market forecast, previews the expected sales for 2011-2016 both in terms of non-smartphone, and smartphone devices and mobile operating systems (OSes). Recent trends within the market are also discussed and applied to the conversation about the future of handset sales to end users through 2016.

At present, the smartphone market has hit something of a design impasse, with all OEMs attempting to out-design Apple with a ‘shiny black glass block’ design approach (although materials vary, the design similarities between smartphones are amazingly small at present). And given the growth in smartphone sales together with the very high market entry costs, iGR believes it unlikely that significant new OEMs will enter the market in the next few years.

PThat said, we expect that competition among the existing players will continue to intensity. The U.S. smartphone market is likely to be a very competitive environment for the remainder of the forecast period.

iGR anticipates that the majority of growth in the U.S. smartphone market segment will occur prior to 2014. This suggests that equipment vendors and manufacturers, as well as software developers, are likely to see the greatest gains should they enter the market earlier on. Such front-loaded expansion also indicates that certain mobile OSes, especially Apple and Android who are the current market leaders, may be better poised for sustained long-term growth than other mobile OSes who are either just entering the market or currently faltering/repositioning.

Key Questions Answered

  • What were U.S. handset sales from 2009- present?
  • What were U.S. smartphone sales from 2009- present?
  • What are the current U.S. wireless device trends?
  • What are current U.S. wireless consumer trends?
  • What are the current trends in U.S. wireless services?
  • What are the anticipated U.S. handset sales for 2012-2016?
  • What are the expected U.S. smartphone sales for 2012-2016?
  • Which smartphone operating systems are expected to prevail in 2012-2016?
  • What are the expected sales for the major smartphone OS in the U.S. in 2012-2016?

Who Should Read

  • Cellular carriers, particularly those in the U.S.
  • Private/ Independent mobile device retailers with U.S. customers
  • Mobile device OEMs interested in the U.S. market
  • Mobile software developers creating content for U.S. end users.
  • Financial and investment analysts

Table of Contents

  • Abstract
  • Executive Summary
  • U.S. Smartphone Sales 2009 - 2011
    • Handset Sales, 2009 - 2011
    • Handset Sales by Type, 2009 - 2011
  • Increased OEM competition
    • ‘Moogle’ (Google and Motorola)
    • Sony
    • HTC
    • Research In Motion (RIM)
    • LG
    • Samsung
    • Nokia
    • Apple
    • Huawei and ZTE
  • Smartphone Market Drivers 2012 - 2016
    • Consumer expectations
    • Continued handset replacement
    • Increasing value proposition
    • Changes in business use
    • Increased processor speeds
    • Improved screen resolution
    • Move to LTE
    • Improved cameras
    • Increasing software functionality, apps and services
    • NFC
    • Battery life
  • U.S. Smartphone Sales Forecast: 2011-2016
    • Handset Forecast by Type, 2011 - 2016
    • Non-smartphone Sales Forecast, 2011 - 2016
    • Smartphone Forecast, 2011 - 2016
    • Smartphone Forecast by Operating System, 2011 - 2016
    • Major Forecast Assumptions
  • Methodology
    • iGR End User Quantitative and Qualitative Studies
  • Definitions
    • General
    • Device Types
    • Services
    • Network Technology
  • About iGR
    • Disclaimer

List of Tables

  • Table 1: U.S. Total Handset Sales, 2009-2011
  • Table 2: U.S. Mobile Handset Sales by Handset Type, 2009-2011
  • Table 3: U.S. Mobile Handset Sales by Handset Type, 2011-2016
  • Table 4: U.S. Mobile Handset Sales, 2011-2016: Non-Smartphone
  • Table 5: U.S. Mobile Handset Sales, 2011-2016: Smartphone
  • Table 6: U.S. Mobile OS Forecast, 2011-2016 (units)

List of Charts

  • Figure A: U.S. Smartphone and Non-Smartphone Sales, 2009-2011
  • Figure B: U.S. Total Handset Sales, 2011 & 2016
  • Figure 1: U.S. Total Handset Sales, 2009-2011
  • Figure 2: U.S. Mobile Handset Sales by Handset Type, 2009-2011
  • Figure 4: U.S. Mobile Handset Sales by Handset Type, 2011-2016 (units)
  • Figure 5: U.S. Mobile Handset Sales, 2011-2016: Non-Smartphone
  • Figure 6: U.S. Mobile Handset Sales, 2011-2016: Smartphone
  • Figure 7: U.S. Mobile OS Forecast, 2011-2016 (Percentage Share)

For additional information on the REPORT TITLEmarket research report, please contact Iain Gillott at (512) 263-5682 or by email.

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